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2014-08-19
本月早些時候，中國國家能源局局長吳新雄表示，將2020年頁巖氣產量目標下調至300億立方米。相比之下，下調前的目標是600至800億立方米。雖然頁巖氣的產量目標被大幅下調，中國要想難實現這個目標還是很難。目前，中國只有一個大型頁巖氣項目投入了商業化生產，就是中石化在四川涪陵的氣田。這家國有企業預計涪陵頁巖氣產量在2016年和2017年將分別達到50億立方米和100億立方米，被認為是中國最有價值的頁巖氣田。去年，全中國的頁巖氣總產量只不過是2億立方米，所以很難想象如何實現2020年的目標，甚至實現2015年總產量達到65億立方米的目標難度也很大。
在提到頁巖氣的時候，成本才是關鍵所在。眾所周知，水力壓裂和水平鉆探技術其實已經誕生 幾十年。美國之所以能實現頁巖氣大繁榮——美國現在不僅是全球最大的天然氣生產國，還是最大的碳氫化合物生產國——是因為美國人找出了高效開采的辦法。
中國頁巖氣的生產成本大約是美國的四倍。換言之，它的成本要高出液化天然氣價格。北京方面無疑將縮小這一差距，不過這絕不意味著可以確保在中國開采頁巖氣的經濟可行性。中國的領導人似乎更加擔心，如何為國有企業保留最好的氣田，并確保這些企業可以發展自己的專長，以使利潤留在中國人的手里。中石化最大的驕傲就是，其在涪陵的所有生產工具和設備均為國產。
中國頁巖氣面臨的是一種開采成本居高不下而售價卻被人為壓低的局面。這一切都預示著，中國的技術官僚們將無法實現2020年的目標。(由中國進出口網轉載自福布斯中文網)
Aug.19, 2014
Earlier this month, Wu Xinxiong, Director General of China's National Energy Bureau, said that shale gas production target in 2020 is reduced to 30 billion cubic meters. In contrast, the goal before the reduction was 60 billion to 80 billion cubic meters. While shale gas production target is significantly reduced, it is still very difficult for China to achieve this goal. Currently, China has only one large project to commercialize shale gas production, Sinopec gas field inFuling, Sichuan Province. Shale gas production in this state-owned enterprises is expected to be 5 billion to 10 billion cubic meters in 2016 and 2017 respectively, which is considered as China's most valuable shale gas field. Last year, all the China's shale gas production is only 200 million cubic meters, so it is hard to imagine how to achieve the 2020 target. Moreover, it is much more difficult to achieve 2015 production goal of 6.5 billion cubic meters.
When referring to shale gas, the cost is the key point. As we all know, hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technology has already been evented for decades. U.S. shale gas has been able to achieve great prosperity - United States is now not only the world's largest natural gas producer, but also the largest hydrocarbon production country - because Americans find an efficient mining method.
China’s shale gas production cost is about four times than the United States. In other words, its costs are higher than the price of liquefied natural gas. Beijing will undoubtedly narrow the gap, but this in no way means that you can ensure that the conomic viability of economic viability exploitation in China. China's leaders seem to be more worried about how to help state-owned enterprises retain the best field, and ensure that these companies can develop their own expertise to make the profits in the hands of Chinese people. Sinopec is most proud of the fact that all of its production tools and equipment in Fuling are made in China.
China’s shale gas exploitation is faced with a situation that the mining cost is high while the price was artificially lowered. All this indicates that China's technocrats will not be able to achieve 2020 goals.
(Translated by m.erdostxps.com)
本月早些時候，中國國家能源局局長吳新雄表示，將2020年頁巖氣產量目標下調至300億立方米。相比之下，下調前的目標是600至800億立方米。雖然頁巖氣的產量目標被大幅下調，中國要想難實現這個目標還是很難。目前，中國只有一個大型頁巖氣項目投入了商業化生產，就是中石化在四川涪陵的氣田。這家國有企業預計涪陵頁巖氣產量在2016年和2017年將分別達到50億立方米和100億立方米，被認為是中國最有價值的頁巖氣田。去年，全中國的頁巖氣總產量只不過是2億立方米，所以很難想象如何實現2020年的目標，甚至實現2015年總產量達到65億立方米的目標難度也很大。
在提到頁巖氣的時候，成本才是關鍵所在。眾所周知，水力壓裂和水平鉆探技術其實已經誕生 幾十年。美國之所以能實現頁巖氣大繁榮——美國現在不僅是全球最大的天然氣生產國，還是最大的碳氫化合物生產國——是因為美國人找出了高效開采的辦法。
中國頁巖氣的生產成本大約是美國的四倍。換言之，它的成本要高出液化天然氣價格。北京方面無疑將縮小這一差距，不過這絕不意味著可以確保在中國開采頁巖氣的經濟可行性。中國的領導人似乎更加擔心，如何為國有企業保留最好的氣田，并確保這些企業可以發展自己的專長，以使利潤留在中國人的手里。中石化最大的驕傲就是，其在涪陵的所有生產工具和設備均為國產。
中國頁巖氣面臨的是一種開采成本居高不下而售價卻被人為壓低的局面。這一切都預示著，中國的技術官僚們將無法實現2020年的目標。(由中國進出口網轉載自福布斯中文網)
Earlier this month, Wu Xinxiong, Director General of China's National Energy Bureau, said that shale gas production target in 2020 is reduced to 30 billion cubic meters. In contrast, the goal before the reduction was 60 billion to 80 billion cubic meters. While shale gas production target is significantly reduced, it is still very difficult for China to achieve this goal. Currently, China has only one large project to commercialize shale gas production, Sinopec gas field inFuling, Sichuan Province. Shale gas production in this state-owned enterprises is expected to be 5 billion to 10 billion cubic meters in 2016 and 2017 respectively, which is considered as China's most valuable shale gas field. Last year, all the China's shale gas production is only 200 million cubic meters, so it is hard to imagine how to achieve the 2020 target. Moreover, it is much more difficult to achieve 2015 production goal of 6.5 billion cubic meters.
When referring to shale gas, the cost is the key point. As we all know, hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technology has already been evented for decades. U.S. shale gas has been able to achieve great prosperity - United States is now not only the world's largest natural gas producer, but also the largest hydrocarbon production country - because Americans find an efficient mining method.
China’s shale gas production cost is about four times than the United States. In other words, its costs are higher than the price of liquefied natural gas. Beijing will undoubtedly narrow the gap, but this in no way means that you can ensure that the conomic viability of economic viability exploitation in China. China's leaders seem to be more worried about how to help state-owned enterprises retain the best field, and ensure that these companies can develop their own expertise to make the profits in the hands of Chinese people. Sinopec is most proud of the fact that all of its production tools and equipment in Fuling are made in China.
China’s shale gas exploitation is faced with a situation that the mining cost is high while the price was artificially lowered. All this indicates that China's technocrats will not be able to achieve 2020 goals.
(Translated by m.erdostxps.com)
