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世界主要能源預測機構——國際能源機構(IEA)周二表示，石油輸出國組織（OPEC，簡稱歐佩克）產油量增加以及全球經濟增長放緩意味著，原油供過于求的現象將延續到明年。
IEA稱，隨著低油價的刺激效應逐漸消失、依賴大宗商品收入的國家經濟活動減弱，預計石油需求增長將出現“顯著放緩”。
“每桶50美元的油價是推動全球石油市場再平衡的一個強有力因素，”IEA在其備受關注的月度報告中稱，“但是，明年石油需求增速預計將顯著放緩、伊朗料將增加產油量……很可能會使市場供過于求的狀態延續到整個2016年。”
IEA補充稱，一旦針對伊朗的制裁解除，這個歐佩克成員國就可能增產，其影響預計將大于美國自2008年以來石油產量首次下降的影響。
油價暴跌推動石油需求出現近10年以來最強勁的增長——全球石油日需求量增加180萬桶，達到每日9450萬桶。汽油需求尤其強勁，表明較低的油價鼓勵了機動車駕駛者更多地開車。但是，IEA預計，這一效應將會消失，明年的需求增長預計將放慢至120萬桶/天。
IEA稱，全球經濟前景“更加悲觀”。IEA利用國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的增長預測來對石油需求狀況作出估計。IMF本月早些時候表示，2015年世界經濟增速將是全球金融危機以來最慢的一年。
加拿大、巴西、委內瑞拉、俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯等依賴石油收入的經濟體的經濟增長放緩，也會對石油需求增長造成影響。
“在其中很多國家，在其他條件相同的情況下，大宗商品價格下滑最終等同于公共開支減少，可能會抑制消費者支出，”IEA稱。
然而，在油價暴跌的情況下，歐佩克大型成員國正慢慢地從成本較高的產油國——比如生產頁巖油的美國——手中奪回市場份額。
由于歐佩克成員國產量增加抵消了美國以及非歐佩克產油國減產的影響，9月全球石油日均供應量穩定在將近9660萬桶的水平。
“高成本的供應——主要是非歐佩克國家——正在被擠出市場，”IEA稱，“美國的石油供應——此前一直是供應增長的推動力——已經在迅速下降。”
受全球大型能源公司削減支出20%以上的影響，9月非歐佩克國家的日均石油供應量減少18萬桶，達到每日5830萬桶。預計2015年的日均產油量將處于這一水平，而明年預計將進一步減少50萬桶。
“放緩最多的是美國，”IEA稱，“自9月初以來鉆探活動進一步減少，預計美國輕致密油(light-tight oil)產量將加速下滑。”
美國石油日產量的同比增幅，從2015年初的160萬桶減少至30萬桶。
不過，非歐佩克國家的石油供應狀況超出了預期，8月、9月巴西和俄羅斯的石油產量均刷新了紀錄。
9月，歐佩克日均原油供應量增加9萬桶，達到3170萬桶——伊拉克產量創紀錄抵消了沙特減產的影響。今年迄今，歐佩克平均日產原油3120萬桶，產油量較去年同期日均增加100萬桶。面對油價大幅下跌，歐佩克決定保持產量以重新贏回客戶，而沒有為支持價格而增產。（中國進出口網）
Higher oil output from Opec and a slowdown in world economic growth means the crude oil glut will persist through next year, the world’s leading energy forecaster said on Tuesday.
The International Energy Agency said it expected a “marked slowdown” in oil demand growth as the stimulus from lower prices faded and as economic activity weakened in countries dependent on commodity revenues.
“Oil at $50 a barrel is a powerful driver in rebalancing the global oil market,” the IEA said in its closely watched monthly report. “But a projected marked slowdown in demand growth next year and the anticipated arrival of additional Iranian barrels...慍爀攀 likely to keep the market oversupplied through 2016.”
An increase in production from Opec member Iran once sanctions are lifted is expected to overshadow the first dro in US oil output since 2008, the IEA added.
The collapse in oil prices has supported the strongest oil demand growth in almost a decade, with low prices helping boost demand by 1.8m barrels a day to 94.5m b/d. Gasoline demand has been particularly strong, suggesting motorists have been encouraged to drive more by lower prices. But the IEA forecasts that effect will fade, with demand growth set to slow to 1.2m b/d next year.
The IEA, which uses the International Monetary Fund’s growth assumptions for its oil demand estimates, said the global economic outlook was “more pessimistic”. The fund said earlier this month the world economy would grow for 2015 at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis.
Weaker economic growth in oil-dependent economies such as Canada, Brazil, Venezuela, Russia and Saudi Arabia will also have an impact on demand growth.
“Lower commodity prices, with all else held equal, eventually equate to lower public spending and a potential dampening in consumer expenditure in many of these countries,” the IEA said.
The largest Opec countries are slowly succeeding, however, in taking back market share from higher cost producers like US shale amid the oil price crash.
World oil supply held steady near 96.6m b/d in September as a dro in output from the US, and other producers outside of Opec, was offset by increased supply from the cartel itself.
“High-cost supply — primarily non-Opec — is being forced out,” the IEA said. “Supply in the US — which had been the motor of growth — is already sinking swiftly.”
Non-Opec supply slipped 180,000 b/d to 58.3m b/d in September as spending cuts of more than 20 per cent by the world’s biggest energy companies had an impact. Production is expected to average at this level for 2015, before dropping a further 500,000 b/d next year.
“The sharpest slowdown is in the US,” the IEA said. “Further reductions in drilling activity since the start of September are expected to accelerate declines in US light tight oil production.”
US year-over-year gains have eased to just 300,000 b/d from 1.6m b/d in early 2015.
Non-Opec supplies nevertheless exceeded expectations, with Brazil and Russia recording record output levels during August and September.
Opec crude supply — led by record Iraqi output, which offset declines from Saudi Arabia — rose 90,000 b/d in September to 31.7m b/d. Year to date the group has pumped 31.2m b/d, 1m b/d higher than the same period a year ago, before the cartel decided to keep the taps open to win back customers rather than defend prices.
