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印度經濟3年左右將趕超中國?

India's Economy Overtaking China’s in around Three Years?

放大字體??縮小字體 ??來源:FT中文網??瀏覽次數:1014
核心提示:印度在就任剛滿百日的印度總理納倫德拉?莫迪(Narendra Modi)領導下,開始重新煥發活力。
印度在就任剛滿百日的印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)領導下,開始重新煥發活力。

鑒于中國經濟增長率有放緩至7%的趨勢,預言印度經濟增速或許會超越中國不再顯得荒誕不經了。

印度最大資產管理公司HDFC共同基金的主管普拉尚特•賈殷(Prashant Jain)表示,印度在幾年后就將超越中國,成為全世界增長速度最快的大型發展中經濟體。

諷刺的是,莫迪跟印度經濟此次反彈關系不大,甚至可以說毫無關系。

本次反彈更應該歸功于一年前上任的印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)行長拉古拉姆•拉詹(Raghuram Rajan),他采取措施抑制通脹,幫助重振商界信心。

然而,印度在整體上信心回歸要歸功于莫迪。他在5月以壓倒性多數勝出、當選總理,他那種目標明確、毫不含糊的的作風,以及支持企業的名聲,都提升了市場信心。

盡管如此,人們仍有充分理由對印度突然強勁起來的增長步伐保持警惕。經濟學家警告稱,要達到更嚴格的財政赤字目標,莫迪將不得不進一步減支。因此在未來幾個季度,印度經濟很有可能再次回落。

人們在將印度與中國相比的時候也更加謹慎,只是預言印度的增長率將逐漸趨近中國。以前,人們曾宣稱印度的經濟模式將被證明比中國更先進,得益于印度更年輕的人口結構、印度的民主體制、以及英語普及程度。事實證明這些預言錯得如此離譜,以至于沒有多少人會重提。(中國進出口網
U11471P31DT20140903072844 (1)
India's Economy Overtaking China’s in around Three Years?

India became resurgent under the leadership of Narendra Modi, Indian Prime Minister, just taking office for one hundred days.

Given China's economic growth has slowed to 7%, it no longer seems absurd that India’s economic growth will surpass China’s.

Prashant Jain, the manager of India's largest asset management company HDFC Mutual Fund said, India will overtake China in the next few years, to become the world's fastest growing major developing economies.

Ironically, there is little relationship between Modi and the Indian economy rebound, or even there is no relationship.

The rebound should be attributed to Raghuram Rajan who is the governor of the Reserve Bank of India and took office one year ago. he took measures to curb inflation and help revive business confidence.

However, India’s overall confidence return thanks to Modi. His won an overwhelming majority of support in May and was elected prime minister. Resorting to his clear objectives, unambiguous style and support-for-corporate reputation, Modi improves market confidence.

Nevertheless, people still have good reasons for India's sudden surge to remain vigilant. Economists warns that in order to reach more stringent fiscal deficit goal, Modi will have to further cut public spending. Therefore, in the next few quarters, the Indian economy is likely to fall again.

People become more cautious when comparing India with China, but predicted that India's growth rate will gradually be closer to China. Previously, people had claimed that India's economic model will be proved more advanced than China’s, thanks to a younger demographic in India, India's democratic institutions, as well as English pervasiveness. These predictions proved so outrageous that there are not many people repeating.

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